Victoria (VIC) Farm & Agricultural Land Value Trends 2026

Victoria farm and agricultural land values dipped 1% in 2024 to a median price of $14,848 per hectare, marking the state’s first decline since 2015 and representing a significant cooling from the double-digit gains of 2020-2022. The market has entered a consolidation phase characterised by selective buyer activity, extended selling periods, and growing regional divergence. Transaction volumes fell to 3,104 sales nationally in the first half of 2025, representing a 30-year low, with properties now taking an average of 200 days to sell, up from 120 days just a year earlier. For prospective farm buyers in 2026, Victoria presents a markedly different landscape than the competitive boom years, with opportunities for well-prepared purchasers who understand regional variations, water security implications, and infrastructure developments reshaping long-term value propositions across the state.

Overview: What’s Driving the 2026 Victoria Farm Market

The Victorian rural property market in 2026 is shaped by a complex interplay of factors that differ substantially from the rapid escalation of 2020-2022. Following 2024’s 1% decline in median price (the first decrease since 2015), the market has shifted into a more measured phase where buyer power has strengthened considerably.

In Victoria specifically, transaction volumes rose 7% year-on-year in 2024 but remain 22% lower than in 2022. Properties are spending significantly longer on market as vendors’ price expectations clash with what purchasers are prepared to pay.

Interest rates stabilised after three cuts in 2025 brought the RBA cash rate down to 3.60%, providing some relief for buyers. However, borrowing costs remain elevated compared to the 2020-2021 lows that fuelled the boom, and banks are applying more rigorous serviceability assessments. Major lenders are not forecasting further rate cuts until 2026, removing the stimulus that could drive renewed buyer competition.

Seasonal conditions through 2024-2025 proved challenging for Victorian farmers. Favourable weather in NSW and Queensland was in stark contrast to the significant lack of rain experienced in southern regions. As at 11 November 2025, total combined storage levels for major Melbourne, regional and statewide storage networks were as follows: Melbourne 74% full (15% lower than the previous year), Regional 59% full (19% lower than the previous year), Statewide 61% full (19% lower than the previous year).

These drier conditions have direct consequences for 2026 buyers. Opening seasonal determinations for irrigation allocations in July 2025 were substantially lower than recent years, though by November 2025 the Murray system reached 100% high-reliability water share allocation, while the Goulburn and Loddon systems were at 62%, Broken at 37%, Campaspe at 100%, and Bullarook at 0%. The improvement from July to November demonstrates the volatility of allocations depending on inflows, with average inflows required to secure 100% high-reliability water share allocations in the Victorian Murray and Goulburn systems.

Livestock prices have been a bright spot, rebounding sharply across late 2023 and into 2024 after a challenging 2023. Cattle prices lifted 20-39% through 2024, driven by restocking demand following drought-induced destocking and strong export markets. Australia’s agriculture sector is projected to achieve its second-highest production value on record in 2024-25 at $94.3 billion. This livestock recovery has translated directly into demand for Victoria’s grazing regions, particularly the Western District and Gippsland.

Cropping commodity prices present a more mixed picture. While grain prices eased from 2022 peaks, production volumes in well-watered northern regions compensated somewhat for lower per-tonne returns. The challenge for cropping enterprises has been managing elevated input costs (particularly fertiliser) against softer commodity prices, making buyers more focused on land productivity and reliable rainfall zones rather than simply expanding acreage.

The outlook for 2026 is one of continuing moderate growth. Industry analysts expect farmland availability to remain tight, but mixed seasonal conditions, combined with ongoing uncertainty in global trade and commodity markets, are likely to limit substantial growth. For buyers, this means more negotiating power than in recent years, but also the need for thorough due diligence as market dynamics vary significantly from region to region.

Commodity and Climate Factors Shaping Victoria Farm Demand

Victoria’s commodity performance in 2025 has been distinctly split between sectors. Livestock enterprises have thrived, with cattle and sheep prices recovering strongly from 2023’s challenges. This strength directly supports grazing land values across the Western District, Gippsland, and parts of northern Victoria where reliable pasture growth underpins carrying capacity.

Australia’s beef and veal exports are forecast at $13.9 billion for 2024-25, with sheep meat exports at $5.3 billion, both at record levels. This export strength translates into sustained demand for well-grassed grazing properties, particularly those with reliable water access for stock.

Cropping enterprises face more complex economics. Input costs, especially fertiliser and fuel, remain significantly higher than two to three years ago, squeezing on-farm margins despite reasonable production volumes. Buyers in Victoria’s cropping regions (Wimmera, Mallee, and parts of northern Victoria) are increasingly focused on land productivity metrics and reliable seasonal performance rather than speculative expansion.

Climate and seasonal conditions remain the most immediate driver of regional market variations. The Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook shows that December 2025 to February 2026 rainfall has an average likelihood of exceeding the median (45-55% chance) across the south-west and west of Victoria, with most of the rest of the state having a slightly higher chance (55-60%).

There is a high likelihood (>80% chance) of exceeding the median maximum temperature for December 2025 to February 2026 across southern Victoria, decreasing to 60-80% across part of East Gippsland and for most of the north-west. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral but there are signs that La Niña may be developing, with weekly values fluctuating around the La Niña threshold since mid-to-late September. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event remains active.

Water availability dominates value propositions in Victoria’s irrigation regions. Victorian Murray and Goulburn systems require average inflows to secure 100% high-reliability water share allocations for 2025-26. Current storage levels show significant year-on-year decreases, meaning buyers in irrigation-dependent areas must thoroughly assess water entitlement reliability, allocation history, and delivery infrastructure.

As at 23 October 2025, there were 38 stream sections with restrictions or bans on licensed diversions across Victoria, 11 more than at the end of September 2025. This tightening of surface water access reinforces the value premium for properties with secure water entitlements or reliable bore access.

For 2026 buyers, climate risk assessment cannot be based on recent exceptional seasons. Properties must stack up financially under average to below-average rainfall scenarios, current commodity prices, and elevated input costs. The days of assuming favourable conditions will bail out marginal purchases are over.

Victorian Farmland Regional Standouts for 2026

Victoria’s regional farmland markets are diverging more sharply than ever, with distinct winners and consolidators emerging from the 2024-2025 period. Understanding these regional dynamics is essential for identifying value in 2026.

South and West Gippsland: Premium Values Driven by Agricultural Productivity

South and West Gippsland retained its position as Victoria’s most valuable farmland region in 2024 at $29,335 per hectare, also claiming the title of Australia’s most expensive farmland overall. Despite a 5.5% decline from peak values, prices remain at the second-highest level on record.

This isn’t lifestyle buyers driving prices but neighbouring cattle farmers competing for scarce grazing land. Properties in this high-rainfall zone (900mm annually) combine fertile loamy soils with consistent productivity, supporting intensive livestock operations. The region has recorded seven consecutive years of growth in median prices per hectare, with transaction numbers rebounding to 115 sales in 2024 after record lows in 2023.

The challenge for new buyers in Gippsland is competing against established local operators who understand the land’s productive capacity intimately and can justify premium prices through integration with existing operations. Small landholdings predominate due to the productive nature of the country, meaning expansion opportunities are limited and fiercely contested when they arise.

For 2026, Gippsland represents Victoria’s premium tier. Buyers should expect strong competition for any quality listing, extended due diligence requirements to justify premium pricing, and the need to demonstrate serious agricultural intent to compete against local farmers. Properties requiring capital investment or lacking established infrastructure may offer negotiation opportunities as the broader market cools.

Western District: Consistent Livestock Fundamentals

The Western District (Hamilton, Warrnambool, Colac region) continues to deliver reliable value based on solid livestock fundamentals. While the region doesn’t command Gippsland’s premium pricing, it offers more accessible entry points at approximately $7,000-$15,000 per hectare* while maintaining excellent productive capacity.

*Regional price estimate based on market analysis; specific property values vary by location, soil quality, and infrastructure.

Basalt-derived volcanic soils underpin consistent pasture growth even during drier periods, with rainfall of 650-850mm annually. The region’s reputation as Australia’s “wool capital” reflects generational farming expertise and proven livestock systems. Properties range from tightly held family operations to subdivided acreages with sealed road frontage and township access.

The Western District’s appeal lies in balancing genuine agricultural productivity with reasonable proximity to regional centres (Hamilton, Warrnambool) that offer robust services including hospitals, schools, and agricultural suppliers. Transaction volumes remain relatively stable, suggesting the market has found sustainable activity levels rather than boom-bust volatility.

For 2026 buyers, the Western District offers solid livestock investment propositions without the extreme competition seen in Gippsland. Buyers should verify soil drainage during wet periods, assess livestock carrying capacity realistically, and ensure water security through combination of rainfall, bore access, and storage infrastructure.

Northern Victoria: Crop and Irrigated Agriculture

Northern Victoria encompasses diverse agricultural systems from broadacre cropping in the Wimmera-Mallee to intensive irrigation in the Goulburn Valley. The region recorded growth in specific areas during 2024, though the pace has moderated significantly from 2020-2022’s double-digit increases.

The Goulburn Valley remains Victoria’s premier irrigation zone, with properties at approximately $10,000-$20,000 per hectare* reflecting valuable water entitlements and horticultural infrastructure. Stone fruits, apples, pears, table grapes, and increasingly almonds dominate land use. The critical factor determining value is water entitlements, those with secure high-reliability allocations command substantial premiums.

*Regional price estimate based on market analysis; properties with premium water entitlements command higher values.

The challenge for 2026 Goulburn Valley buyers is navigating variable water allocations. As of November 2025, the Goulburn system had reached 62% high-reliability water share allocation (improving from 38-39% in August), demonstrating the seasonal volatility that now characterises the system. Properties must be assessed based on productivity under average allocation scenarios, not the full allocations of recent wet years.

The Wimmera-Mallee offers Victoria’s most affordable broadacre land at approximately $3,000-$7,500 per hectare*, attracting serious grain producers seeking scale. Flat topography and sandy loam soils suit mechanised cropping of wheat, barley, lentils, and canola. However, rainfall is marginal (300-450mm) and variable, demanding expertise in dryland farming practices.

*Regional price estimate based on market analysis; prices vary significantly by location and soil type.

Mallee properties reward scale and efficiency. Large parcels (hundreds of hectares) allow spreading of machinery costs across sufficient area to generate returns. Buyers need substantial working capital for machinery, inputs, and to weather poor seasons. Water is scarce, with properties relying on bores and tank storage for stock and domestic use.

For 2026, northern Victoria presents polarised opportunities. Goulburn Valley irrigated land suits buyers with horticultural expertise willing to navigate water allocation variability and premium pricing. Wimmera-Mallee attracts broadacre grain operators seeking affordable scale, but requires sophisticated understanding of dryland farming systems and risk management.

Central Highlands: Lifestyle and Mixed Farming Balance

The Central Highlands (Ballarat, Daylesford, Creswick region) has emerged as a focal point for tree-changers and mixed farming operations. Central Victoria lifted 9.9% in 2024, with properties ranging from approximately $12,000-$22,000 per hectare*, reflecting proximity to Melbourne (1.5-2 hours) combined with productive capacity.

*Regional price estimate based on market analysis; Daylesford area commands premiums above this range.

Elevated terrain provides cooler temperatures and volcanic soils supporting mixed farming including small-scale livestock, vegetables, orchards, and viticulture. The region is attracting regenerative farming practitioners, local food producers, and agritourism ventures, creating diverse demand beyond traditional broadacre agriculture.

Ballarat’s role as a regional centre with robust services, education, and healthcare enhances appeal. Many properties maintain Melbourne connections for part-time work while establishing rural enterprises gradually. NBN connectivity is generally strong, supporting remote work arrangements.

The lifestyle premium in Central Highlands creates both opportunities and cautions for 2026 buyers. Properties priced primarily for aesthetic appeal rather than agricultural productivity are taking longer to sell as the market cools. Buyers focused on genuine farming operations rather than pure lifestyle may find negotiation opportunities on properties that have been overpriced relative to productive capacity.

Buyers should assess realistic productivity under average conditions, verify water security through rainfall, bore access, and storage, and ensure infrastructure (fencing, yards, sheds) is adequate for intended use rather than requiring immediate capital investment.

South Eastern Victoria: Diversified Agriculture Recovery

South Eastern Victoria (East Gippsland, parts of Wellington Shire) offers diversified farming options between cropping, grazing, and specialised agriculture. The region suits buyers seeking versatility to pivot between enterprises based on seasonal conditions and commodity prices.

Rainfall reliability is generally good, though not reaching Gippsland’s levels. Properties often combine arable areas suitable for cropping with grazing country, allowing mixed enterprises that spread risk. The region is less intensively farmed than Gippsland, creating opportunities for buyers willing to undertake property improvements.

Transaction volumes in South Eastern Victoria remain moderate, suggesting the region has established sustainable market activity without the extreme highs or lows of other areas. Prices reflect productive capacity more than lifestyle premium, making the region attractive for buyers prioritising agricultural returns over proximity to Melbourne.

For 2026, South Eastern Victoria offers balanced opportunities for diversified operators. Buyers should verify productive capacity across both cropping and grazing potential, assess water security for intended enterprises, and evaluate road access and distance to markets for commodity transportation.

Victoria Farms Regional Performance Summary: 2024-2026 Outlook

Region	2024 Performance	Median Price ($/ha)	Transaction Volume	2026 Outlook	Key Drivers
South & West Gippsland	-5.5% (from peak)	$29,335	Rebounded to 115 sales	Premium prices sustained	Highest productivity, local farmer demand
Central Victoria	+9.9%	~$12,000-$22,000*	Moderate	Lifestyle cooling	Melbourne proximity, mixed farming
Ovens Murray	-21.5%	Variable	Lower	Selective demand	Adjustment from peak values
Western District	Stable**	~$7,000-$15,000*	Steady	Consistent demand	Reliable livestock returns, volcanic soils
Wimmera-Mallee	Stable**	~$3,000-$7,500*	Low but steady	Selective demand	Lowest cost, scale operations
Northern Irrigation	Modest growth**	~$10,000-$20,000*	Moderate	Water-dependent value	Irrigation infrastructure, variable allocations

*Price ranges are estimates based on market analysis and regional characteristics; actual property values vary significantly by location, soil quality, water access, and infrastructure. Buyers should conduct independent valuation assessments.

**Performance classification based on regional trends reported in industry analysis; specific growth percentages not available for all sub-regions.

Data sourced from Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Australian Farmland Values 2024 and market analysis

Victorian Infrastructure and Transport Projects to Watch

Infrastructure developments are reshaping regional connectivity and long-term land values across Victoria. Several major projects reaching critical phases in 2025-2026 will have direct impacts on farmland accessibility and freight efficiency.

Inland Rail Victorian Sections

Inland Rail’s Victorian sections are progressing toward major construction milestones. The 1,600-kilometre freight rail line connecting Melbourne and Brisbane through regional Victoria represents transformative infrastructure for agricultural regions.

Tranche 1 works of the Beveridge to Albury section are expected to complete in 2025. Major construction is anticipated to begin in the Albury to Illabo section in 2026 once environmental approvals are finalised. For Victorian farmland near the corridor (particularly around Wodonga, Wangaratta, and Benalla), this infrastructure promises improved freight access to both Melbourne and Brisbane markets.

The practical impact for farm buyers is that properties within 50-100 kilometres of Inland Rail freight hubs may see improved market access for grain, livestock, and other bulk agricultural products. This could translate into marginally better commodity prices through reduced transport costs, though the effect will vary depending on existing freight alternatives and distance to loading points.

Melbourne Airport Rail and Regional Connectivity

The Melbourne Airport Rail project received significant Commonwealth and Victorian funding, with works expected to start in early 2026 and complete by 2030. The project includes transformation of Sunshine Station with extra platforms and a dedicated spur line making it the hub for regional rail services connecting to Melbourne Airport.

For rural properties in Victoria’s west and northwest, this infrastructure improves access to international freight markets, particularly for high-value perishable agricultural products. Regional V/Line passengers will be able to transfer at Sunshine directly to airport services, improving connectivity for rural residents.

Metro Tunnel and Regional Rail Enhancement

The Metro Tunnel is scheduled to open in 2025, with funding allocated to operationalise the system and deliver more frequent services. While primarily urban infrastructure, improved Melbourne rail capacity indirectly benefits regional areas by reducing congestion and improving V/Line service reliability.

Regional Rail Freight Network Upgrades

The Victorian Government announced funding for regional rail freight network upgrades. The Shepparton Rail Freight Planning Study (jointly funded with Commonwealth) aims to maximise benefits for both freight and passenger services on the line, including rail-freight infrastructure upgrades.

New intermodal freight precincts are planned for Truganina (Melbourne’s west) and Beveridge (outer north) to service Victoria’s growing freight and logistics sector. These facilities will provide alternative loading points for regional agricultural producers, potentially reducing transport costs for farms in those catchments.

For buyers evaluating Victorian farmland in 2026, proximity to these freight improvements adds incremental value through reduced transport costs over the long term. Properties within economical trucking distance (50-100km) of upgraded rail freight facilities should see improved competitiveness for bulk commodity transport.

Victorian Agricultural Land Price and Demand Forecasts for 2026

Market forecasters are projecting continued modest growth for Victorian farmland through 2026, with farmland availability remaining tight and mixed seasonal conditions limiting substantial growth.

The key drivers that will determine whether 2026 exceeds or falls short of modest growth expectations include:

Seasonal conditions:

Neutral to developing La Niña conditions point toward average to slightly above-average rainfall. If this materialises, properties in reliable rainfall zones will maintain value while marginal areas may struggle. The critical factor is water storage recovery; current levels at 61% statewide (19% lower than previous year) need substantial winter-spring inflows to restore confidence in irrigation allocations.

Water availability and pricing:

Variable seasonal determinations throughout 2025-26 (starting low in July, improving by November with Murray at 100% and Goulburn at 62% high-reliability allocation) demonstrate the tighter conditions facing irrigators. Properties with secure water will maintain premiums, while those dependent on low-reliability allocations may face buyer hesitation.

Commodity prices:

Early production prospects for 2025-26 look promising, with key commodity prices forecast to increase. Livestock prices have recovered strongly, supporting grazing land demand. However, global trade uncertainty and potential tariff changes could disrupt export markets, particularly for beef, wool, and grain. Cropping profitability remains challenged by elevated input costs against moderate grain prices.

Interest rate trajectory:

With the RBA cash rate at 3.60% and major banks not forecasting further cuts until 2026, borrowing costs are likely to remain relatively stable. This removes interest rate uncertainty but doesn’t provide the stimulus that lower rates would bring to buyer confidence. Serviceability assessments at current rates remain rigorous, with banks stress-testing scenarios at higher rates.

Transaction volume trends:

Transaction volumes at 30-year lows suggest 2026 will continue the pattern of fewer, higher-quality sales rather than broad market activity. Properties are taking around 200 days to sell on average nationally. This extended selling period gives buyers more time for due diligence and negotiation, but well-priced properties meeting specific criteria will still move relatively quickly.

Regional variations will be more pronounced than ever. Gippsland will maintain premium pricing due to productivity and local demand, though expect some moderation from peak values. Western District should see steady demand based on livestock fundamentals. Goulburn Valley faces water allocation uncertainty affecting buyer confidence. Wimmera-Mallee will remain heavily dependent on seasonal conditions and grain price trajectories. Central Highlands may see lifestyle premiums moderate as pure amenity buyers become more scarce.

What This Means for Victoria Farm Buyers in 2026

The 2026 Victorian farmland market presents a markedly different environment than the competitive, rapidly escalating conditions of 2020-2022. For buyers, this creates both advantages and challenges requiring adapted strategies.

Greater negotiating power:

With properties spending 200 days on market and transaction volumes at 30-year lows, buyers have time to conduct thorough due diligence without pressure of immediate competition. Vendors who are genuinely motivated to sell are more willing to engage on price, particularly for properties requiring capital investment or in less sought-after locations. This represents a significant shift from 2021-2022 when properties often sold above asking price with multiple offers.

Focus on productivity fundamentals:

The days of buying marginal land assuming climate or commodity improvements will bail out the investment are over. Buyers in 2026 need to underwrite purchases based on realistic productivity assessments under average seasonal conditions, current commodity prices, and elevated input costs. Properties must generate acceptable returns without relying on best-case scenarios.

Water security is paramount:

In irrigation areas, water entitlements and reliability will continue to drive value differentiation. Thoroughly understanding allocation history, carryover rules, trading options, and likely future allocation scenarios is essential. With allocations demonstrating substantial seasonal variability, factor in that operations may face reduced allocations in drier periods. Environmental flow requirements will likely maintain pressure on water availability.

Victorian water trading complexities:

Victoria’s separation of water rights from land titles creates complexity but also opportunity. Water shares (permanent entitlements) can be bought and sold independently of land, and delivery shares are required for irrigation infrastructure access in some areas. Transfer approval through Victorian Water Register is required. Buyers must verify both water share ownership and delivery rights, not just assume water comes with the land.

Planning zones matter:

Victoria’s planning system significantly affects what you can build and farm. Farming Zone (FZ) provides broadest agricultural rights with dwelling entitlements. Rural Conservation Zone (RCZ) imposes some farming restrictions for environmental protection. Public Park and Recreation Zone (PPRZ) has limited agricultural use and dwelling restrictions. Always review planning scheme overlays and bushfire management overlays with local councils before purchase.

Stamp duty and exemptions:

Victoria offers specific concessions for agricultural purchases that can significantly reduce transaction costs. Primary production exemption is available for working farms over 2 hectares. Standard rates reach 5.5% on properties over $960,000, so exemptions represent substantial savings. Foreign purchaser duty of 8% applies to overseas buyers. Calculate costs accurately using State Revenue Office calculators before making offers.

Infrastructure positioning:

Properties positioned to benefit from Inland Rail, improved regional rail freight networks, or closer access to Melbourne Airport Rail will have competitive advantages. These infrastructure improvements won’t create windfall gains overnight, but they improve long-term viability by reducing freight costs and improving market access. Evaluate properties based on proximity to freight hubs and transport corridors.

Financing remains available but conditional:

Banks are still lending for Victorian farmland purchases, but expect rigorous assessment of serviceability at current interest rates and commodity prices. Pre-approval is essential before making offers. Demonstrating farming experience or agricultural qualifications strengthens applications. Debt serviceability must be proven under stress-tested scenarios, not optimistic projections. Properties with established productive history are easier to finance than bare land requiring extensive development.

Lifestyle premiums are moderating:

For buyers seeking properties combining lifestyle appeal with agricultural productivity, the market has shifted in their favour. Pure lifestyle blocks with limited productive capacity are proving harder to sell at 2022-2023 price expectations. This creates opportunities for buyers who can add value through improved management or infrastructure investment. Central Highlands and parts of North East Victoria may offer better value as lifestyle premiums moderate.

Succession creating opportunities:

Succession planning has emerged as a major driver of farm sales, motivated by retirement, health concerns, or children choosing not to return to the family farm. These sellers are often motivated to find the right buyer rather than simply achieving peak price, particularly if there are opportunities for staged succession or continued family involvement. Buyers demonstrating respect for farm heritage and willingness to work with exiting farmers may negotiate favourable terms.

Victorian-specific risks:

Buyers must assess bushfire risk via VicEmergency Planning and understand Bushfire Management Overlay restrictions. Native vegetation regulations can significantly restrict what you can clear or modify. Salinity and soil degradation issues affect some regions. Environmental overlays may limit farming practices. These Victoria-specific factors require thorough investigation before purchase.

The outlook for buyers entering the Victorian farmland market in 2026 is one of measured optimism. While the dramatic capital gains of recent years are unlikely to repeat, well-selected properties in regions with good infrastructure, reliable water, and proven productivity should provide both income returns and modest capital appreciation. The key is avoiding overpaying in the current environment while recognising that quality assets in tightly-held regions will still attract competition.

Successful buyers in 2026 will be those who conduct extensive research, understand regional nuances, have secure financing arrangements, navigate Victoria’s water and planning systems confidently, and are prepared to act decisively when the right property at the right price becomes available. The market rewards patience and preparation, but also punishes excessive hesitation when genuine opportunities emerge.

Making the Transition: Victorian City to Country in 2026

For Melbourne residents and other urban dwellers considering a move to rural Victoria, the 2026 market presents distinct opportunities that differ from traditional large-scale farming investments. The tree change phenomenon has created a specific market segment focused on small lot farming, self-sufficiency, and lifestyle properties balancing rural amenity with practical food production.

Understanding the Victorian Small Block Market

Small rural properties (typically 2-50 hectares) operate in a different market dynamic than broadacre farmland. These blocks often carry lifestyle premiums above pure agricultural value, but the 2026 market cooling has moderated some of the extreme pricing seen in 2021-2022.

The Central Highlands, South Gippsland, and North East regions have all seen strong interest from Melbourne outflow buyers, but each serves different needs. Central Highlands properties offer best proximity to Melbourne (1.5-2 hours), making weekend commutes or gradual transitions feasible. South Gippsland provides premium productive capacity with reliable rainfall, but commands highest prices due to agricultural productivity rather than pure lifestyle appeal. North East Victoria appeals to those seeking cool climate, natural beauty, and established food culture.

Properties spending 200 days on market means transitioning buyers have more time to conduct thorough research, visit multiple times across seasons, and negotiate without pressure of instant competition. Pure lifestyle blocks requiring significant capital investment are facing buyer resistance, creating opportunities for those prepared to add value.

Defining Your Self-Sufficiency Goals

Before committing to property search, transitioning buyers need clear, realistic goals about what self-sufficiency means. Full self-sufficiency producing all food, energy, and water needs is extremely labour-intensive and requires diverse skills most city dwellers haven’t developed. A 5-10 hectare block can support substantial vegetable gardens, orchard, egg production, and potentially 2-4 cattle or sheep, but won’t provide complete food independence without significant daily commitment.

Partial self-sufficiency growing vegetables, keeping chickens, perhaps a house cow, and buying supplementary food is more achievable for people transitioning from city life while maintaining off-farm income. Most successful small-block operators target 30-50% of their food needs from their property initially, expanding as skills and infrastructure develop.

Small-scale commercial farming selling eggs, vegetables, honey, or value-added products at farmers markets or through local networks can offset costs but rarely generates full-time income on blocks under 20 hectares. This approach works well for people maintaining part-time remote work or semi-retirement while building a rural enterprise gradually.

Critical Infrastructure for Victorian Small Blocks

Water security: Properties relying solely on rainwater tanks require substantial storage capacity, typically 100,000-200,000 litres minimum for household and garden use, more if livestock are involved. Victoria’s variable rainfall means tank capacity is critical. A reliable bore or creek with extraction rights provides drought resilience but requires testing for water quality, flow rates, and understanding Victorian water licensing. In declared water systems, extraction licenses may be required even for domestic and stock use.

Power access: Grid connection is ideal for properties within a few kilometres of existing infrastructure, but connection costs can exceed $50,000-$100,000 for remote blocks. Solar systems with battery storage have become more affordable, with 10-15kW systems sufficient for most household and small farm needs, though batteries remain expensive and require replacement every 10-15 years.

Road access: Sealed road frontage means year-round reliable access and easier service delivery, though properties on sealed roads carry price premiums. Gravel road access is workable but becomes challenging during wet weather and requires more robust vehicles. Dirt track access can be impassable for weeks after heavy rain in high-rainfall areas, isolating properties and preventing emergency vehicle access.

Planning zones: Verify the property’s planning zone and overlays before purchase. Farming Zone provides best agricultural flexibility and dwelling entitlements. Rural Conservation Zone may restrict intensive agriculture or additional dwellings. Some properties have Bushfire Management Overlay restrictions affecting building locations and designs. Environmental Significance Overlay may limit vegetation clearing or farming practices.

Realistic Timeframes and Budgets

Transitioning from city to rural Victoria takes longer and costs more than most anticipate. Plan for at least 12-24 months of setup work before achieving even basic self-sufficiency. Initial infrastructure (fencing, water systems, gardens, animal housing, machinery) typically costs $30,000-$80,000 beyond land purchase for a 10-hectare block aimed at moderate food production.

Ongoing expenses for rates, water, power, fuel, feed supplements, veterinary care, seeds, amendments, and equipment maintenance typically run $8,000-$15,000 annually for a small productive block. Victorian council rates vary significantly by region and land size. Factor these into your budget alongside mortgage or purchase costs.

Skill development requires time investment. Successfully managing even a small Victorian property demands knowledge about animal husbandry, horticulture, fencing, water management, machinery operation, and property maintenance. Victorian-specific knowledge around fire management, native vegetation regulations, and local climate patterns is essential.

Financing Considerations for Victorian Lifestyle Blocks

Banks treat lifestyle properties differently than traditional farmland, particularly if the buyer lacks agricultural experience or the property won’t generate significant farm income. Expect stricter lending criteria, higher deposit requirements (potentially 20-30% rather than 10-15%), and scrutiny of how you’ll service the loan if farm income doesn’t materialise.

Victorian primary production exemption for stamp duty can significantly reduce transaction costs but requires demonstrating the property will be used for primary production and meets minimum size thresholds. Work with conveyancers experienced in rural Victorian transactions to structure purchases optimising available exemptions.

Consider staging your transition rather than complete immediate relocation. Some buyers purchase property while still working full-time in Melbourne, spending weekends establishing infrastructure and gradually transitioning to full-time rural residence. This approach reduces financial pressure and allows skills development before relying on farm income.

Note: This is not financial advice. Always seek professional advice specific to your circumstances when considering financial decisions.

Victorian Regional Priorities for Transitioning Buyers in 2026

Based on 2024-2025 market performance and the specific needs of city-to-rural transitioners, certain Victorian regions offer better combinations of value, accessibility, and established support networks:

Region	Distance from Melbourne	Median Price Range (10-20ha block)*	Climate	Best For	Key Advantages	Considerations
Central Highlands	1.5-2 hours	$400,000-$700,000	Cool-temperate, four seasons	Weekend commuters & remote workers	Closest to Melbourne, strong community, diverse farming	Cold winters, frost risk, lifestyle premium
South Gippsland	1.5-2.5 hours	$600,000-$1,000,000+	Temperate, high rainfall	Premium productivity	Reliable rainfall, fertile soils, year-round growing	Highest prices, strong local competition
Western District	3.5-4.5 hours	$350,000-$650,000	Cool-temperate, reliable rainfall	Serious livestock operations	Volcanic soils, established ag services, affordable	Distance from Melbourne, cold winters
North East	2.5-3.5 hours	$400,000-$750,000	Cool climate, alpine influence	Alternative lifestyle & cool climate crops	Strong food culture, natural beauty, tourism potential	Bushfire risk, some remoteness
Macedon Ranges	1-1.5 hours	$500,000-$900,000	Cool-temperate	Premium lifestyle-agriculture balance	Very close to Melbourne, established infrastructure	High prices, limited availability

Price ranges are estimates based on market observation and regional characteristics. Actual property values vary significantly based on location, soil quality, water access, infrastructure, and market conditions. Buyers should conduct independent research and property valuations.

Central Highlands (Ballarat, Daylesford, Creswick area) provides the best balance of Melbourne accessibility, reasonable land prices after 9.9% Central Victoria growth in 2024, and established small-farming communities. The region has strong farmers market networks, agricultural education resources, and climate suitable for diverse food production. Properties 10-30 hectares can be found with basic infrastructure, though Daylesford commands premiums for its established lifestyle reputation.

South Gippsland (Korumburra, Leongatha, Mirboo North) offers premium productive capacity with Victoria’s highest and most reliable rainfall (900-1,200mm annually). Properties here suit serious small-scale farmers prioritising productivity over proximity to Melbourne. Strong dairy heritage means established agricultural support networks, though diversification into beef, boutique livestock, and horticulture is increasing. Prices are highest in this category at $29,335 per hectare for the broader region, reflecting genuine agricultural value rather than pure lifestyle appeal.

Western District (Hamilton, Warrnambool, Colac region) suits buyers prioritising affordability and serious livestock operations over Melbourne proximity. Volcanic soils provide excellent pasture growth, and the region has deep agricultural expertise. Properties offer better value than coastal regions, with substantial acreage available at accessible prices. The trade-off is 3.5-4.5 hours from Melbourne, making this more suitable for committed full-time transitions than weekend commutes.

North East Victoria (Beechworth, Myrtleford, Bright, Yackandandah) appeals to those seeking natural beauty, established food culture, and cool climate growing conditions. The region has strong networks around wine, boutique agriculture, and agritourism. Properties require careful bushfire risk assessment but offer appealing lifestyle combined with agricultural potential. Community is a major drawcard, with active farmers markets, food festivals, and collaborative farming initiatives. Note that Ovens Murray region recorded a 21.5% decline in 2024, suggesting price corrections from peak values.

Macedon Ranges (Woodend, Kyneton, Lancefield) provides closest proximity to Melbourne with strong infrastructure and established lifestyle-agriculture balance. However, high demand has pushed prices to premium levels, and availability is limited. Properties move quickly when priced fairly, making this region highly competitive despite the broader market cooling.

For transitioning buyers, the priority should be finding regions with established small-farming communities, good access to local markets and suppliers, reasonable commuting distance if maintaining Melbourne work connections, and climate matching your food production goals. Don’t chase the absolute cheapest land if it’s isolated, lacks community support, or requires extensive development before becoming liveable.

What 2026 Market Conditions Mean for Transitioning Buyers

The current market environment favours well-prepared buyers making measured decisions. Properties spending 200 days on market means you can visit multiple times across different seasons before committing, seeing how the property performs in wet weather, how accessible it remains during winter, and whether the reality matches vendor descriptions.

Transaction volumes at 30-year lows mean less competition, particularly for properties requiring work or lacking instant lifestyle appeal. Pure amenity blocks priced at 2021-2022 levels are sitting unsold, while realistic listings still attract multiple interested buyers. This rewards those who’ve done market research and can recognise fair value.

However, genuinely good small blocks in desirable regions with established infrastructure still move relatively quickly when priced fairly. The difference in 2026 compared to 2021-2022 is that overpriced properties sit unsold indefinitely, while realistic listings still attract serious interest within reasonable timeframes.

Victorian-specific factors that transitioning buyers must address include:

Planning permits and zones: Verify what you can build, farm, and modify before purchase. Some Rural Living Zones have restrictions on intensive agriculture or livestock numbers. Bushfire Management Overlay requirements can significantly increase building costs and restrict locations.

Native vegetation regulations: Victoria has strict native vegetation clearing regulations. Properties with established cleared land for farming are more valuable than heavily timbered blocks requiring clearing permits, which are difficult to obtain and expensive to satisfy offset requirements.

Water licensing: In declared water systems, extraction licenses may be required even for domestic and stock bore use. Verify water rights and licensing requirements with relevant water authority before purchase. Surface water extraction is increasingly regulated.

Bushfire risk assessment: Use VicEmergency Planning tools to assess bushfire risk. Properties in Bushfire Management Overlay areas face building restrictions, mandatory fire management plans, and potentially higher insurance costs. Some properties may be difficult or expensive to insure.

For Melbourne buyers transitioning to rural Victoria in 2026, success comes from realistic goal-setting, thorough due diligence including Victorian-specific regulations, adequate financial buffers for unexpected costs, and willingness to learn continuously. The dream of rural self-sufficiency is achievable, but it takes more time, money, and effort than most urban dwellers anticipate. Those who enter the market prepared, with clear plans and realistic expectations, will find 2026 offers genuine opportunities to establish productive small holdings at more reasonable prices than recent boom years.

Comparing Victorian and NSW Farmland Markets for 2026

For buyers considering both states, understanding the key differences between Victorian and NSW farmland markets helps identify which state better suits your objectives and budget.

Pricing and affordability: Victoria’s median farmland value of $14,848 per hectare (after 1% decline in 2024) is substantially higher than NSW’s $9,459 per hectare (after 7.2% growth), reflecting Victoria’s generally higher productivity, better rainfall reliability in key regions, and closer proximity of rural areas to Melbourne compared to Sydney’s spread. However, regional variations are significant, with Victoria’s Wimmera-Mallee offering similar pricing to NSW’s Far West, while Victoria’s Gippsland at $29,335 per hectare commands premiums above all NSW regions.

Market momentum: NSW showed stronger recent momentum with 7.2% growth in 2024 marking its 11th consecutive year of growth, while Victoria recorded its first decline since 2015 at -1%. This divergence suggests NSW’s market retained more buyer confidence through 2024, though both states face similar challenges entering 2026 with transaction volumes at 30-year lows.

Water security dynamics: Both states face reduced water storage levels entering 2025-26. Victoria’s statewide storage at 61% (19% lower year-on-year) compares to NSW storage at approximately 59% (down from 77%). Victorian water markets operate differently than NSW’s Murray-Darling Basin system, with Victoria’s separation of water shares from land titles creating complexity but also flexibility. As of November 2025, Victorian Murray system reached 100% high-reliability allocation while Goulburn was at 62%, showing improvement from July’s lower starting points but demonstrating ongoing volatility.

Seasonal conditions: NSW (particularly central and northern regions) benefited from more favourable rainfall through 2024 compared to Victoria’s drier conditions in southern regions. This seasonal divergence has translated into stronger buyer sentiment in NSW grazing regions compared to Victorian equivalents. However, Victorian high-rainfall zones (Gippsland, Western District) maintain productivity advantages even in drier years due to higher baseline rainfall.

Infrastructure development: Both states are investing heavily in freight infrastructure. NSW’s Inland Rail and Western Sydney Airport provide new freight access, while Victoria’s Melbourne Airport Rail and regional freight network upgrades offer similar benefits. Victorian rural areas generally have closer proximity to major infrastructure than NSW equivalents due to the state’s smaller geographic size, with most regional centres within 2-3 hours of Melbourne.

Transaction volumes: Victoria’s transaction volumes rose 7% year-on-year in 2024 but remained 22% lower than 2022 levels. Both states show properties spending around 200 days on market, indicating similar buyer caution and extended negotiation periods.

Regional diversity: NSW offers greater geographic diversity from coastal subtropical regions to semi-arid inland areas, providing more climate and farming system options. Victoria’s smaller size means less extreme climatic variation but tighter integration between rural regions and Melbourne, with better access to capital city services and markets.

For buyers comparing the two states, NSW currently offers better value on a per-hectare basis and showed stronger recent momentum with 11 consecutive years of growth, while Victoria provides generally higher productivity in premium regions (particularly Gippsland), closer proximity of rural areas to the capital, and more established regional infrastructure. The choice depends on your specific farming system, budget, and proximity requirements to capital cities.

For detailed NSW market analysis, see our comprehensive guide on Farm & Agricultural Land Buying Trends in NSW for 2026.

Final Thoughts: Victorian Farm & Agricultural Land Strategy for 2026

The Victorian farmland market in 2026 presents a fundamentally different landscape than the boom years of 2020-2022. Transaction volumes at 30-year lows, properties taking 200 days to sell, and Victoria’s first price decline since 2015 (down 1% in 2024) signal a market favouring prepared, patient buyers over speculative purchasers chasing capital gains.

The most successful Victorian farm purchases in 2026 will be those based on sound agricultural fundamentals rather than assumptions of continued rapid appreciation. Properties must stack up financially under realistic seasonal conditions (average rainfall, not the exceptional wet years), current commodity prices (not 2022 peaks), and elevated input costs (fertiliser, fuel, labour at 2025-2026 levels).

Water security has emerged as the defining factor for value differentiation in irrigation regions. With Victorian water storage levels 19% lower than the previous year and seasonal allocations demonstrating substantial volatility (improving from low July starting points to 100% Murray and 62% Goulburn by November 2025), buyers must thoroughly understand water entitlement reliability, allocation history, and likely scenarios under various seasonal conditions. The days of assuming full water allocations every year are over.

Regional selection matters more than ever. Gippsland maintains premium pricing at $29,335 per hectare (Australia’s most expensive farmland) justified by genuine productivity and local farmer demand, though expect some moderation from peak values with the 5.5% decline in 2024. Western District offers solid livestock fundamentals at more accessible pricing. Northern irrigation regions face water allocation uncertainty requiring careful assessment. Wimmera-Mallee provides lowest cost entry for broadacre operations but demands expertise in dryland farming systems. Central Victoria recorded strong 9.9% growth in 2024, offering lifestyle-agriculture balance, while Ovens Murray’s 21.5% decline signals price corrections from peak values.

Infrastructure positioning provides incremental long-term advantages. Properties within economical distance of Inland Rail freight hubs, improved regional rail networks, or enhanced connections to Melbourne Airport Rail will benefit from reduced transport costs over time. These advantages won’t create immediate windfall gains but improve competitive positioning for commodity marketing.

For transitioning city buyers, 2026 offers better opportunities than recent years. Extended selling periods allow thorough due diligence, lifestyle premiums are moderating in some regions, and properties requiring work face less competition. However, success requires realistic goal-setting, adequate financial buffers, understanding of Victorian planning and water regulations, and commitment to skill development.

The Victorian farmland market rewards those who understand regional nuances, conduct thorough due diligence, have secure financing pre-arranged, and are prepared to act decisively when well-priced opportunities arise. The market has shifted from rewarding speed and optimism to rewarding preparation and realism.

For buyers entering the Victorian market in 2026, the key is avoiding overpaying in the current environment while recognising that quality assets in tightly-held regions will still attract competition. Well-selected properties in regions with good infrastructure, reliable water, and proven productivity should provide both income returns and modest capital appreciation, delivering sound agricultural investments rather than speculative plays.

The outlook is one of measured optimism: not the dramatic gains of boom years, but solid returns for well-chosen properties managed competently. That’s a sustainable foundation for long-term agricultural success.

Data Sources and References:

Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Australian Farmland Values Report 2024
Bureau of Meteorology Climate Outlooks and Water Storage Data (November 2025)
Northern Victoria Resource Manager Seasonal Determination Updates (November 2025)
Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action Water Reports
Rural Bank Farmland Values and Market Analysis
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Agricultural Commodities Report

Note: This analysis is based on market data current to November 2025 and industry forecasts for 2026. Property markets can change rapidly based on seasonal conditions, commodity prices, and interest rate movements. Regional price ranges marked with asterisks (*) are estimates based on market analysis and actual values vary significantly by specific location, soil quality, water access, and infrastructure. Always conduct thorough due diligence, obtain independent property valuations, and seek professional advice before making farmland purchase decisions.*

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